eiv model
Error-in-variables modelling for operator learning
Patel, Ravi G., Manickam, Indu, Lee, Myoungkyu, Gulian, Mamikon
Deep operator learning has emerged as a promising tool for reduced-order modelling and PDE model discovery. Leveraging the expressive power of deep neural networks, especially in high dimensions, such methods learn the mapping between functional state variables. While proposed methods have assumed noise only in the dependent variables, experimental and numerical data for operator learning typically exhibit noise in the independent variables as well, since both variables represent signals that are subject to measurement error. In regression on scalar data, failure to account for noisy independent variables can lead to biased parameter estimates. With noisy independent variables, linear models fitted via ordinary least squares (OLS) will show attenuation bias, wherein the slope will be underestimated. In this work, we derive an analogue of attenuation bias for linear operator regression with white noise in both the independent and dependent variables. In the nonlinear setting, we computationally demonstrate underprediction of the action of the Burgers operator in the presence of noise in the independent variable. We propose error-in-variables (EiV) models for two operator regression methods, MOR-Physics and DeepONet, and demonstrate that these new models reduce bias in the presence of noisy independent variables for a variety of operator learning problems. Considering the Burgers operator in 1D and 2D, we demonstrate that EiV operator learning robustly recovers operators in high-noise regimes that defeat OLS operator learning. We also introduce an EiV model for time-evolving PDE discovery and show that OLS and EiV perform similarly in learning the Kuramoto-Sivashinsky evolution operator from corrupted data, suggesting that the effect of bias in OLS operator learning depends on the regularity of the target operator.
Errors-in-Variables for deep learning: rethinking aleatoric uncertainty
We present a Bayesian treatment for deep regression using an Errors-in-Variables model which accounts for the uncertainty associated with the input to the employed neural network. It is shown how the treatment can be combined with already existing approaches for uncertainty quantification that are based on variational inference. Our approach yields a decomposition of the predictive uncertainty into an aleatoric and epistemic part that is more complete and, in many cases, more consistent from a statistical perspective. We illustrate and discuss the approach along various toy and real world examples.
Errors-in-variables Modeling of Personalized Treatment-Response Trajectories
Zhang, Guangyi, Ashrafi, Reza, Juuti, Anne, Pietiläinen, Kirsi, Marttinen, Pekka
Estimating the effect of a treatment on a given outcome, conditioned on a vector of covariates, is central in many applications. However, learning the impact of a treatment on a continuous temporal response, when the covariates suffer extensively from measurement error and even the timing of the treatments is uncertain, has not been addressed. We introduce a novel data-driven method that can estimate treatment-response trajectories in this challenging scenario. We model personalized treatment-response curves as a combination of parametric response functions, hierarchically sharing information across individuals, and a sparse Gaussian process for the baseline trend. Importantly, our model considers measurement error not only in treatment covariates, but also in treatment times, a problem which arises in practice for example when treatment information is based on self-reporting. In a challenging and timely problem of estimating the impact of diet on continuous blood glucose measurements, our model leads to significant improvements in estimation accuracy and prediction.
RCR: Robust Compound Regression for Robust Estimation of Errors-in-Variables Model
The errors-in-variables (EIV) regression model, being more realistic by accounting for measurement errors in both the dependent and the independent variables, is widely adopted in applied sciences. The traditional EIV model estimators, however, can be highly biased by outliers and other departures from the underlying assumptions. In this paper, we develop a novel nonparametric regression approach - the robust compound regression (RCR) analysis method for the robust estimation of EIV models. We first introduce a robust and efficient estimator called least sine squares (LSS). Taking full advantage of both the new LSS method and the compound regression analysis method developed in our own group, we subsequently propose the RCR approach as a generalization of those two, which provides a robust counterpart of the entire class of the maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) solutions of the EIV model, in a 1-1 mapping. Technically, our approach gives users the flexibility to select from a class of RCR estimates the optimal one with a predefined regression efficiency criterion satisfied. Simulation studies and real-life examples are provided to illustrate the effectiveness of the RCR approach.